(I predicted shortages with low prices leading to higher prices)
Silver Stock Report
by Jason Hommel, September 15th, 2008
I thank God for the insights he gave me, because not everyone who can read their Bibles could see what I warned you about, and many still don’t see it even today.
As early as June 10, 2002, I predicted shortages, caused by the paper markets:
Controlling Gold with Paper June 10, 2002
Key Excerpt:
I would love to go into the precious metals business and start dealing in bullion. This would be an excellent business because as we enter this bull market, more and more people will want to buy metal, and business will be booming. Additionally, I sincerely believe in the moral benefit to owning gold and silver coins, so I would feel very good about getting gold into the hands of people, and out of the clutches of the evil central bankers who stole it in the first place. I believe I would be providing a genuine service to humanity by helping people protect their wealth, and I would be fighting the good fight against central banking, which is a cause of much misery in the world.
Unfortunately, I know default is coming. I know that eventually, the time would come when I would take larger and larger orders, and then, I would try to buy gold and silver in New York, and I would get nothing after having placed the order. I believe the coin dealers in this country are real heroes to continue their business in the face of such danger. Essentially, I know that the situation is like a con game. Confidence keeps the game going, and I do not have confidence in the New York price, unlike our heroic coin dealers. I’ve talked to coin dealers about this, and they shrug it off, saying that’s just the normal risk of doing business, just as there are risks in any business. I think that’s an amazingly heroic attitude to have.
On April 4, 2008, I warned against holding paper futures contracts, because you need to be able to stay fully invested and holding on to your physical metal that you might not be able to replace during a shortage, caused by 50% price dips.
I Don’t Trade Futures April 4, 2008
Key Excerpt:
Silver is volatile, more than gold. In Gold’s last bull market, gold dropped nearly 50% in 1975, from about $250 to $125, and didn’t recover for 4 years.
What if silver did that? Or worse? Could you sustain that kind of loss in futures? Could you ride it out? Not in futures that only go out 2 years.
How can you protect yourself from such an event in silver, in this bull market? Would you have to use less leverage? Or buy longer dated options that don’t exist? Should you put down 75% of the money for your silver position, but not hold the silver and still risk a delivery default?
Futures and Silver are fundamentally different things.
Futures expire. Silver does not.
–end excerpts–
I don’t share this to “toot my horn”, but rather, to refute those who say that nobody predicted this, and to refute those who say that I didn’t predict this. I predicted this. Exacly what we see today. Anyone could have predicted this. In fact, I predicted silver shortages in my advertising for over the past year. I’ve predicted shortages for so long, that people began to say I was crying wolf. But the wolf is here now. The coming shortages in silver was self evident to anyone who took the time to study the fundamentals of the small size and tightness in the silver market, and who can understand relative size of markets, and who can understand the basic math that shows that paper usury systems must fail due to the inescapable conclusion that you cannot compound your way to owning every atom in the universe.
They cannot prevent $14,000 billion in the banking system from entering a $1 billion silver market, by manipulating the price of silver low, and not have shortages! It’s self evident!
I thank God for what he taught me about usury, that he taught me to not take his word on the matter, but to really search it out, and meditate on it, and think deeply about the concept and its real world and theological implications. Usury leads to slavery. We are called to love our enemies, not enslave them. We are called to freedom, as where the Spirit of the Lord is, there is Liberty.
Yes, Biblically speaking, we have the liberty to lend at usury, and even enslave others! But we are called not to do those things, as I see it.
One man tells me that interest is merely a discount that the market places on future goods. Wrong. Interest is not a discount. It’s an extra fee! Usury is a bribe to get you to accept future goods rather than accept payment today. The Bible also calls us to not withhold from the worker his daily wage, nor to defraud the worker by withholding wages. Social security and 401k plans that get raided as companies go bankrupt are not the Biblical way. As I see it, you have the right to not accept the bribe of usury, or interest, for delayed payment, you have the right to not lend and not borrow, and that is the better, Biblical way. So, in a sense, I’m not advocating zero usury, I’m saying I refuse to be bribed even by 100% usury!
One man tells me that clearly, he knows he would have to offer me more silver, to accept a payment of silver 100 years from now, that’s self evident to him. But what is not self evident to him is that I will not choose to have my children enslave his children into payment, no matter how much more he offers me! He just doesn’t understand the implications of usury.
Bottom line: I don’t want futures. I want silver! And the two are not the same thing. Never were. Never will be!
So, what’s next?
The shortages will lead to higher prices. Probably shockingly higher prices! The shortages will cause others to buy silver from the paper market to sell at big profits to the real market. People are considering opening up new mints to meet market demand. The market will break the back of the manipulations. The low price is temporary, and it is ending through higher prices for real silver. Eagles are selling for $4.00 to $4.50 over spot at the major wholesalers now, and up to $20-24/oz. at ebay for tubes and individual Silver Eagles!
Shockingly, some people still deny that there is a shortage. They don’t see the evidence because they have not seen it on their news, because they have not been to their coin dealer, because they don’t know the statistics of the silver market, and because they don’t understand the economic implications.
Here, then, are reports of the worldwide shortage of silver that is here now, worse than ever.
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Before I list them, there was one report in particular that I was looking for, and I apologize that I cannot share it with you now. It talked of a coin show of 65 dealers. Before the show, they were all trying to buy silver from each other, but nobody had any. The man who attended the show left without any silver. 65 dealers! All sold out of silver!
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9/15/2008 2:31 AM
Hello Jason
Over the past few weeks I have been reading your articles on the shortage of silver. I really did not expect a shortage to show up in India – but was in for a surprise over the weekend.
In the past I have purchased silver bullion from a well-reputed jeweller in my city – PNG. Never faced any problems earlier. When I visited them on 13-Sep – I was told that there was a shortage and I would have to place an order. I was asked to pay in full upfront and order would be fulfilled in 8-10 days. I asked them why there was a shortage. They said that lot of the silver they sell is recycled scrap. And for some reason the refiner (based in Bombay) was not able to ensure supply to meet demand. I couldnt probe deeper as the shop was packed with customers – all of them buying silver items given the low price and the fact that we are in a period of some auspicious Hindu festivals. The rate quoted for silver was Rs 19,400 per Kg.
Jason notes: 46.5750 Rs per $1. 19400 / 46.57 = $416.53/kilo. 1 kilogram = 32.1507466 troy ounce. $416.53/. = $12.96/oz. On 9/15/2008 2:31 AM
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Dear Jason,
I started buying silver bullion and coins about three years ago (when, ironically, it was also in the $10.00 range), and today experienced for the first time since then what so many of your other subscribers have recently reported. I went to a coins and collectibles dealer in my area for my weekly silver buy, and was promptly informed that they were completely out of .999 bars and rounds. They did have plenty of 2008 Silver Eagles–not surprising, since they’re asking $20.00 each for them, nearly double the current spot price. Only one other customer came in while I was there and (like me) bought some 90% coins instead, their prices for which were about the same as another local competitor of theirs where I normally buy, and who, on my last visit also seemed to not have the usual large selection of pure silver bullion products (and that was BEFORE the recent correction).
So it would indeed appear that at the moment retailers aren’t selling to us because private holders aren’t selling to them, and probably won’t be, especially while the price is on the floor. Presumably this won’t change until the oft-predicted Next Big Leg Up in the silver price begins in earnest, and, with the numerous small bank failures (nearly a dozen this year so far) and bailouts/buyouts of other big lenders and securities houses, plus the worsening economic collateral damage from the housing market bubble burst (inflation, unemployment, stagnant consumer spending, super-tight credit, etc.), the hysterical flight of the debt-ridden masses back to Real Money may happen sooner than we fortunate (literally) Silver Bulls expected.
My compliments to you on your insightful, well-researched, faith-based guidance.
L. Clements
Chicago
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Jason,
Just thought I’d fill you in on the shortages in my area. I live in Northern San Diego County.
I couldn’t make it to the local coin shop on TWOs-Day, so I ended up going on Wed. They were out of generic silver bullion. One of the employees said they hadn’t been able to get any silver from their “wholesaler,” which I imagine meant the general public is not selling, as most of their generic bullion has looked like it’s had a rough life.
One man came in and had apparently called ahead and had some silver eagles reserved for him. He bought 25 of them for $400. That equals $16/Eagle. Silver was right around $14/ounce. So on 9/3 the premium on eagles at this coin shop was $2 over spot.
Today, 9/13, I stoped back in to see if they had gotten any more silver bullion in. I was told “no, things are really tight now. But, I do have some Silver Eagles for $18 each.” The employee then commented something to the effect that they are “at a premium, but that’s how it is now.” Today, silver is under $11/ounce. The premium is now over $7 over spot.
Just thought you might be interested,
Aaron
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Went Hunting for Silver at my Local Coin shop. .”Accent On Coins”, in So Everett, Wa.. they had ZERO Silver.. The store owner said the only silver he is seeing is silver someone is brings in to sell, and that lasts for 2 minutes as the next person to enter the store buys it..
The Owner said he is Trying to Buy Silver and is in contact with ALL of his “Suppliers”
He Wnt On To Say “No One Has Any Silver To Sell”……….
Mean While Silver Sits At 10.84$.. Something Is Going On.. You Know It – We All Know It…
Keep Writing your Reports They are the only light out there among the darkness..
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Refiner out of $1000 oz bars begging for bars to keep doors opened.
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no silver to be found in any coin shop in sioux city ia. jim peck
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Jason,
You’re absolutely right about the silver shortage. My 2 local coin shops I normally buy from are on empty, and see no prospect of getting some anytime soon. They haven’t put in any orders for at least 2 weeks. One said that she stopped putting in orders because all her suppliers can’t say when they’d be able to deliver. So she hasn’t put in any more orders for weeks. The other one said that he hasn’t been able to get any for 2 weeks. It appears that Ted Butler’s predictions are finally coming true. This is the final phase–the physical shortage which will lead to the short squeeze in the paper markets.
Thanks!
Dave
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Dear Jason,
I just confirmed from my local dealer (LaGrande Gold and Silver) that he is out of silver and is frantically trying to find some.
I’m always pleased to read your reports for their content, but also because you are still around to make them. It takes faith to oppose the powers that can bring down international prices. What might they do to any individual who is exposing them with God’s truth?
I don’t want to support the fraud by selling my silver into the current fraudulent market. Is there a place to sell that would capture at least some of the true value of the commodity? I would appreciate your reflection on this dilemma as I suspect would many small-scale silver investors facing real financial obligations.
Yours in Christ,
Bob P.
Jason answers: ebay is the best for now. they take up to 15%, depending on order size. Or others say as little as 5% for 1000 oz. bars. (I don’t use ebay, I’m just reporting.)
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Hi Jason… hope your having a great day today!! 🙂
Just wanted you to know I( went to my local coin dealer to see if he got any junk silver coins in…
& to ask him what silver he did have. Since I buy alot of coins from him over the years… he did sell
me $125.00 face… I ask him what he had left & he said NOT much as he sold it to his resource
(smelters)… He told me he has not sold any silver at all for the last month… he says he has about
another $200 face but paid much more then what he could sell it for so he is going to hold on to it
till silver rises. (I hear the same thing from others) BUT they all say they DO NOT have alot available.
I like coins as it give a good hedge… if silver rises… I got the silver value… after it rises & falls back
I have the coin value… as so much 90% silver is being melted once silver goes way up, then even the
common coins will become more scarce… I also buy silver eagles when I can….
Many are looking for silver to buy but they (the dealers) can’t find any & customers are not bringing in any
silver to sell… so everything you been saying is TRUE… here again this proves there is shortages… I tried to
get more silver from a few other of local dealers I know but again they don’t have any or are sitting on it till
silver prices go up past what they had to pay for it earlier…
Just thought I’d let you know…
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Hey Jason, Im a subscriber to your newsletter and always enjoy reading what you have to say. I just got my dad to start reading you too and he loves it. I live in the Salt Lake valley and thought I’d share whats happening in the local silver market with you. I just called the two coin shops that I regularly buy silver from. The first one is located in downtown Salt Lake City and they are completely out of silver. No 40% or 90% bags, no rounds, no 10 oz. or 100 oz. bars….nothing. The other one is located in Ogden which is about 40 minutes north of Salt Lake. They just got a shipment in today of 300 rounds and already sold 50 of them. They are selling them at 15.50 an oz. which is about 5 dollars over the current spot price of 10.65. The highest premium I ever paid them in the past was 1.50 over spot. Neither shop has ever had any shortages. Amazing. I believe you are 100% correct that prices are artificially low, perhaps being kept there by big players in the financial and government sectors in order to prop up the dollar and prevent the paper silver market from huge defaults. In any event its quite interesting to watch it. Keep up the good work and God bless you.
Nate C
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I was actually shocked today for the first time. I have been buying silver from a coin shop in Lakeland Florida for the past year and a half. You could get basically anything a small timer could want. You could buy monster boxes of silver eageles and a sale of 100 gold eagles was not unusual for 25 to 35 over spot The man has two shops, one in Lakeland and one in Clearwater and has been in business for 40 years. He has no silver other than nusimatic coins. None. He wants 100 dollars over spot for gold eagles which he has plenty meaning several hundred. The other coin shop in Lakeland that I frequent usualy has some art bars and a few bags. They mostly make their money on diamonds. He had 200 silver eagles and wanted 3 dollars over spot. There is now a shortage in Lakeland!
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Jason,
Just let you know that Canadian Scotia bank is no longer accepting order for 100 oz silver bars. You can order 1000 oz or coins only now. RBC is still selling 100 oz but waiting time will be 4 to 6 weeks. They said the siver bar is sold out in several cities and they have to get from Bank of Canada. It seems very tight. However, I did not notice there is long lines though. Strange, did someone withdraw the available silver before engineered this sell off? Is this lawful?
What will happen if cartels make the silver not available to public. They can claim the price to be whatever it is if people can not buy. It is bad fro investors and manuafacturers too.
Lawrence
Jason Notes: Others have reported that Scotia Mocatta is completely out earlier today, and others said they just got some silver in today.
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NO SILVER IN CANADA: In Toronto for example at Scotia Bank you can,t buy any silver for few months now.Two months ago i bought 400 ounce because that silver was kept for another person and he did not came to take the silver.I guess i was lucky,because the price is so low now my wife is angry with me,she think that we lost the money and the price will go much lower.I know that the z—–t criminals manipulate the market.I have no fear about the price going up soon.I invested about 80000$ in silver.For few weeks i call the Scotia Bank every day to check for silver,i want to buy some more,but there is no silver and i have a very god friend that work at the precious metals department.He told me the same thing,there is no silver for so long and the price still went down.People are going crazy,they want to buy,but there is not even 1000 ounce bars.Today i call the bank again,i call them almost every day and told me that they don,t have any kind of silver,nothing,zero,everything is empty.They told me that they have gold but not silver,i ask,when do you expect any silver?The lady told me that this month i cant buy any,maybe in october if an investor is low on cash and needs money.Here is the address and the the phone number if you dont believe me.Foreign Exchange&Precious Metals Scotia Plaza 44 King Street West,Toronto,Ontario M5H 1H1 TEL (416)866-4900 If you dont believe me call them and see that is true.God bless you.
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Jason, I went to Greenville’s only silver coin store in town. They are out of all pre 2008 silver eagles, but have a small supply of 2008 silver eagles. I bought a few rolls at $16/oz, which is about $5.00 over spot. He had 1 100 oz bar offered at 4.75 over. 2008 coins are allocated and he is waiting for more. He doesnt expect any older eagles until paper spot gets back to 17-20 range. He said it is very hard to find silver to buy now. Everyone is buying silver and no one is selling except at very high markups.
Craig
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I enjoy you emails on the silver. I tried to go to my coin shop (Lakewood Coins) in Lakewwod, Colorado today. The were 3 other people waiting for the store to open when I got there. The first Customer in wanted to buy silver and was told they had no bars of any weight, no rounds, no maple leafs, no silver eagles. It would be 4 to 6 weeks before they would have any. The only thing they had was 1 Bag of silver for $11,000.00 and other odd silver coins. I was really shocked even though I read your emails. I bought a 1/10th oz. gold eagle for $100.00. Just though I would let you know how things are in Denver.
David
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Hi
I just wanted you to know that I went to the bank today at 3:30PM after seeing the price of silver drop to $10.75, after debating if I should wait for further price drops, I am glad I did. When I went into the bank to place an order for any kind of silver remaining, Nickolas the bank teller made a phone call to order my silver. The person on the other end of the phone line said they only had 300 Canadian maple leaf coins at $15 even! They had no 1000 ounce bars, no 100 ounce bars, no bars what so ever!! I told Nickolas that there is a world wide shortage of silver and he said “Maybe I should buy some?”. I joked “Sorry I just purchased the last few ounces.”
The economic con game of paper currency created out of nothing and paper promises of silver, gold, stocks and bonds is coming to an end and as a newly awakened individual since February I am glad I purchased on the way down and did not wait for the contraction before the explosion. Why? Because silver and gold is money and I got it at a discount when there were some supply left.
Regards,
Davinci
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Hi,
Have been following your emails here in UK – and buying silver as and when it is available in my local coin shop.
Before the silver price dropped, I was paying £10 – £11 for 1oz Britannias.
Yesterday I was quoted £14 for older coins and £18 for new 2008 Britannias – equivalent to nearly $32 !!!
That’s what you call a hefty premium! – and people are buying.
Keep up the good work,
Regards,
Roger
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HELLO AGAIN JASON I went to our local coin shop yesterday and was able to buy 2 Swiss 1 oz. gold bars for $840 each and a bag of $100 face value old coins for $960. He had no silver eagles, maples or any rounds or any other gold in stock. During our chat he mentioned his great concern at being unable to buy any 2008 silver eagles for his long time Christmas customers, and that very few people are bringing coins into sell.
The availablity picture for gold and silver is indeed very bleak. Again I thank you for giving us a heads up on this story over the last 18 months.
Don
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“Just have a comment on the state of the silver market, at least in my local market,Victoria, British Columbia,” writes a reader. “I went to cash in on the recent increase of the gold/silver ratio — to trade my gold for silver and then reverse the trade when the ratio (hopefully) drops — at the largest coin dealer in the area. To my surprise, they were sold out of silver — SOLD OUT!
“The dealer said the recent drop in silver had people lining up out the door to buy silver. They said in 30 years of business, they have never sold out of stock. Just from a purely social commentary, I would say the ‘gold rush’ is far from over.
“Alas, I went home still holding my gold — not altogether a bad thing in today’s market conditions.”
Ed z
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Chris,
The NW Mint in Auburn, WA, told me today that it is a 4-6 MONTH wait for silver now. Another coin shop in Victoria also confirmed they are out and have “no idea” when they will get any. The last batch went it one day. He said, “I’ve been doing this for 30 years and have never seen anything like it”. He sounded very frustrated to me. He does have some gold, which sounded more encouraging.
Who would have believed spot silver at 11-12 bucks when you can’t find any? It is tragic yet somehow comical. Absurdity reigns!
Ted Butler and you guys are 100% correct. The proof is right in front of us
now. Rather obvious, wouldn’t you say?
Regards,
Mitch
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Hello Jason,
Love reading your articles, great work!
Just wanted to let you know that I called Nortwest Territorial Mint today to order some silver; which they promise to deliver withing 10 weeks, but they would not take my order. They said they are too busy and the only thing they could do is take my number and call me back. Yeah. So, I gave them my number but it’s one of those “don’t call us, we’ll call you” type of situations.
I was able to order some silver (Pan Am) from them before. Not today.
In any case, what in the world is happening to the spot price of silver???
Look forward to your articles.
God bless,
swa
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HELLO JASON,
In Belgium we don’t know something like coin shops, after a long surch ,
I found a dealer in Ostend who’s advertising on the internet and
he is asking 20 euro for one ounce silver Eagle excl. taxes VAT 6 percent. 1 Euro is 1.4160 dollar.
so one eagle cost you 30 dollar. delivery time 2 weeks , 210 in stock
that’s 18.5 dollar over spot 6 percent VAT Included
I don’t think he’s sold a lot.
Dirk B.
BELGIUM
Jason Notes: Thank God we don’t have it as bad as those in Europe.
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Hi Jason,
Just to let you know that the shortage of retail silver has now arrived over this side of the Pond–
just checked availability with one of our main bullion dealers/fabricators Baird & Co (see www.goldline.co.uk)–
even at the prices they charge (UK £176 for a 500g bar !!!!) they are now sold out and offering 3 week lead times–
and these guys make their own bars !
As an aside, I have a fairly hefty investment in the ETF securities physical ETF–
given the difficulty (and crazy prices including VAT tax here in the UK) of owning physical metal oneself, would you recommend James Turks goldmoney.com physical storage programme as a safe alternative?
Many thanks
Martyn S
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Those are some of the silver shortage reports from September 9th to the 15th.
I have about another 40 emails that I saved that report silver shortages from September 3rd to the 9th, but that’s all for now.
Oh, here’s one.
My webmaster, Greg Kyle, who writes an excellent FAQ on silver at www.silveriswealth.com who handles my billing for the website, has been trying to convince a friend of ours from our college days to buy silver. Our friend always buys at the top. Finally, he’s now saying he might buy some now. But he says, “I’ll wait for it to go up a bit, and then I’ll buy only 100 oz. bars!”
The guy is so willfully clueless, it’s just amazing. There are no 100 oz. bars for sale in this market; all the wholesalers of the bars are sold out! Boy is he in for a shock! He acts as if his paper money is worth something, like the “customer is king” or some such nonsense, as if his paper money can instantly conjure up what he desires, whenever he desires it. Fat chance.
More likely, he’ll find one of the online stores offering bars, place an order, wait 5 months, and maybe get nothing at all as the companies go bankrupt as the price heads back up.
Food for thought: If silver was abundant, and if all the refineries took orders at $15-$20/oz. for silver several months ago, then why can’t they all buy silver now at $10, and instantly catch up on all orders? Oh, I suppose you know the reason for that. I’m sure you’ve heard about the shortage of silver by now?
Sincerely,
Jason Hommel