Silver Stock Report
by Jason Hommel, May 14, 2007
“The CPM Silver Yearbook 2007” was released today.
To summarize CPM’s press release:
They conclude that net silver investment demand was about 60 million ounces for 2006, up from 2005, and expected to continue to rise into 2007.
Investor demand is from India, the Middle East, and the West, as a part of protection from inflation, and a participation in the commodity boom.
Silver mine supply is expected to increase slightly, 3%, to 520 million ounces.
India’s central bank selling of about 60 million ounces of silver over a few years is now finished.
Warren Buffet sold his 130 million ounces prior to the introduction of the Silver ETF’s purchase of about 130 million ounces, so those investment moves tended to balance each other out.
It was pointed out that new investor demand is a significant change and is helping to explain the dramatic increases in the silver price.
My thoughts on this:
The amount of money in U.S. banks, M3, is about $12 trillion. Net silver demand was 60 million ounces at about $11/oz., or $660 million dollars. So, the money that is going into silver to protect itself from inflation is equivalent to 0.005% ($660 million out of $12,000,000 million!) of what could be spent on silver, in the U.S. alone.
So, I think a ridiculously tiny amount of paper dollars has shifted into silver, so far.
If 1% of U.S. money supply, M3, attempts to buy silver to protect itself from inflation, that would be $120 billion dollars.
All the silver expected to be mined in the world for 2007, is 520 million ounces. At $14/oz., that’s $7 billion dollars.
If 520 million ounces of silver were allocated to $120 billion dollars of investment demand, with no silver left over for any industrial demand, then silver would cost $230/oz. ($120,000 million/520 million oz.)
The current rate of inflation is a 10% increase of M3 per year. Therefore, a future of 1% of money going towards investment demand for silver would still only be the beginning of the rise in the price of silver.
The Federal Reserve, and Ben Bernanke, are desperate to control people’s expectations of inflation. Look what Bernanke said last year (see the second to last paragraph, at this link):
“The best way to prevent increases in energy and commodity prices from leading to persistently higher rates of inflation is by anchoring the public’s long-term inflation expectations.”
In other words, Bernanke said, “The best way to prevent inflation from getting out of control, is to control everyone’s thoughts about inflation.”
Inflation expectations will lead people to buy silver. If people buy silver, the price of silver will go up. As silver goes up, inflation will get worse. As inflation gets worse, people will buy more silver. What will stop it? Mind control?
As I explained yesterday, I have a well-researched religious belief that the world will return to using gold and silver as money, before Jesus returns at the rapture before the tribulation.
I know that some of the vocal minority think that anything the Bible says is fantasy. Excuse me. Paper money is the fantasy.
The reality of the situation is that today in the real world, there is not enough silver, and way too much paper money. Paper money will fail. Silver will not. Holders of real silver will become wealthy beyond what we can even imagine.