Current (2018) BIS “other precious metals” derivatives data vs. LBMA Vault Holdings: Gold

Yesterday, I compiled the stats for silver.

Today, gold.

$513 billion of “Notional amounts outstanding” gold derivatives contracts among BIS reporting banks. (2018)

Gross market value: $21 billion.

LBMA Vault Holdings of gold:

As at end March 2019, there were 7,671 tonnes of gold, valued at $319.5 billion

LBMA has today announced that the daily average turnover for gold is $36.9 billion (Nov. 2018)

The leverage is not nearly as crazy as it is in silver. $513 billion worth of gold controlled by paper, with $319 billion gold in the vaults. But again, not all of the gold in the vaults can back the paper, as much of the gold in the vaults is owned by nations, central banks, ETFs, bullion funds, and individual clients.

World Annual Mine output of Gold is 3260 metric tonnes, at 32,151oz/tonne = 104,812,260 oz. x $1400/oz. today’s gold price = $146,737,164,000 = $147 billion worth of gold.


Moving over to COMEX stats…

(CONTRACTS OF 100 TROY OUNCES)                       OPEN INTEREST:    1,014,917

Total ounces: 101,491,700 x $1400 = $142,088,380,000 = $142 billion.

Warehouse stocks: from

Registered: 323,026.893 x $1400 = $452,236,400 = $452 million
Eligible: 7,373,652.660
Total: 7,696,679.553

I didn’t expect this. The futures contracts at the COMEX are woefully underbacked right now.

$142 billion / $452 million = 314 to 1!

I suppose it may well pay to run the numbers, and this might explain gold’s recent price rise.

I cannot remember anything close to being this lopsided in the 20 years I’ve been following the gold and silver markets!


The context above helps to understand the significance of the following statement in the following article, from April 8th, 2019:

The other law would declare the Italian people to be the owners of the Bank of Italy’s reserve of 2451.8 metric tons of gold, worth around $102 billion at current prices.


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